Bleed Blue 'n White

Hazelton saga ends

2006-02-24T14:02:00.000-08:00

As you've probably read elsewhere, Vidal Hazelton finally signed (for real) with USC, thus ending the silly saga that, in the end, really wasn't that important. This wouldn't've been a change that impacts Penn State next year in any case - PSU's top heavy with WR talent. Nittany Blog (now Nittany Notebook) had a starting lineup for next year's WRs that I agree with.

Hazelton and Bell have about the same size/speed (Hazelton's faster, but they're both 4.5 range), and are a little taller than Williams, but slower - they're more in Golden/Rubin's frame - 6'3", 215-220 (though they're currently lighter).

Have fun at USC, Vidal. Maybe we'll see you on the sidelines of the national championship in a few years - when Penn State's beating USC, that is.

Hey. Can't blame me for a little smack.

Argh!

2006-02-23T15:29:00.000-08:00

Okay, so life is officially "mean".

Me: "UFR is so hard, it takes me like four hours to generate the freaking HTML so Blogger won't freak out."
Brian (from mgoblog): "Hey, here's an easy way to do it."
Me: "Cool, now it'll be easy!"
Life: "Bwahaha, now try doing it while deathly ill!"

Life wins. On the plus side, "I am no longer infected."

My hovercraft... is full of eels

In lieu of UFR...

2006-02-14T09:38:00.000-08:00

You may have noticed UFR's Orange Bowl defense is late (as were the others...). Yah, so sue me. I'm still trying to figure out easy ways to do this in spare time, and right now it's a lot of work.

So, to make myself feel better, I've decided to use my patented BBNW mind-reading powers to discern what's really going on behind the Vidal Hazelton saga. BWI posted some comments from Dexter Hazelton, his father, and I've realized there's clearly more going on behind the scenes. So I'll fill in what Dexter can't say, okay?

Little did you know, BBNW has ultimate mind reading powers

BBNW mind-reading powers insights are in bold.

"The whole family went to Penn State," said Vidal's father, Dexter Hazelton. "Vidal was very quiet and didn't ask many questions. as the voice of Pete Carroll was clearly filling his mind. He went out with some players later that night (Saturday) so I don't know if he was more of himself then, but he wasn't acting like himself during the visit. "Vidal is a talker and always having fun and upbeat, but I was watching him on the visit and he wasn't himself."

What does this mean?

That clearly our attempt to expunge the stain of USC's recruiting from him has failed. We must try harder!"I'm not sure," said Dexter. "I know he knows the whole family wants him to go to Penn State because they're A: close, B: not only interested in him for his recruiting ranking and C: not evil. But he's a smart kid and he might have just been taking it all in. We were all talking and joking around on the drive home and we didn't really talk about his choice. I told him to take a few days or the whole week and let it soak in, let the decision come to him." which would be Penn State, of course. We were joking around, all right. To save his eternal soul.

Would Dexter still sign a letter to Southern Cal, the team Vidal committed to in late December, if that's where he wants to go?

"Absolutely," he said. "I want Vidal to make an educated decision but I don't want him to go someplace if he's not happy, then he might rebel. The most important thing to his family is that he's happy with his choice. If it's Southern Cal, we'll support him fully." and pray for his survival constantly, and try to get him transferred.

...

"I've talked with coach (Pete) Carroll a few times and it was good since I made sure I had holy symbols within arms reach at all times. Vidal told me he worried about how coach Carroll and I would get along if he chose USC given that he's evil, but I told him that it wouldn't be an issue. If Vidal chooses USC, then they're family. All families have disagreements and divorces, but coach Carroll and I are fine. I'd have no problem."

Pete Carroll: evil

Note - the above was stolen blatantly from this guy, who clearly has more free time than I do.

I have to say, I'm a little disturbed by this whole thing. I can't tell if Hazelton's father is just really pushing for Penn State because it's closer, but he really hates Pete Carroll, USC and the way that USC recruited Hazelton. At one point, there was a Rivals.com article which said that Dexter was upset because Pete Carroll called him and said "you're messing up my rankings" by keeping Hazelton as a question mark, at which point Dexter told Carroll to stop calling. I can't find that article anymore. He's also called Carroll a "shark". EDIT: here's that article, in the Philadelphia Inquirer.

However, I've been loathe to put anything up here about it, because fundamentally, we are talking about a kid's future, and I don't want to get all 'preachy mindless fanboy'. I'm not going to decry him as falling to the devil if he goes to USC. I will, however, point out again that it does make me feel proud that Hazelton's dad prefers Penn State at least somewhat because of their push for academics. 84 percent graduation, folks, when the national average is 65 percent. Of the 8 BCS teams, only Notre Dame and Penn State were above the national average.

But I'm also a little creeped out by the fact that I'm not sure if I believe that Hazelton's dad will let him go to USC, and I really am not fond of the idea of Hazelton going to Penn State only because his dad forced him to.

Upon Further Review, Orange Bowl offense

2006-02-07T12:17:00.000-08:00

Orange Bowl offense

PSU

PSU35

12:50

1st and 10

rush

-2

0-0

Fake a quick pass to the right, Robinson drop back 5 yards, then takes off to run. Hunt (--) stands around and doesn't take on FSU#41, who blitzes on a delay, and trips up Robinson

PSU

PSU34

12:10

2nd and 12

rush

0-0

Robinson drops back, runs right following Hunt, who chooses the wrong guy to block, leaving open #53 who slows down Robinson to be tackled after a gain of 3.

PSU

PSU37

11:23

3rd and 8

pass

0-0

Shotgun, screen pass to Hunt who cuts right when he should've cut outside, running away from his blockers. Rush (-) also completely whiffs on a block on the outside. Dead on.

4 plays, 5 yards, punt

PSU

PSU15

7:56

1st and 10

rush

0-0

Scott rush left end. Tyler Reed (+) buries his own man, then scoots downfield to spring Scott for a 6 yard gain

PSU

PSU21

7:12

2nd and 4

pass

0-0

Swing pass right, caught at PSU 14, King rushes down right sideline to PSU29. Corner, safety for FSU were pulled downfield by speed of Golden, Norwood. Nice play. Dead on.

PSU

PSU29

7:04

1st and 10

pass

0-0

Play action to Scott, Robinson bootlegs left to the 20, pass downfield to Kilmer (+) at FSU 46. Kilmer lined up wide right, and ran a slant across the entire field. Play action brough the secondary in, and Kilmer ran right behind them. Great play call, dead on.

PSU

FSU46

6:56

1st and 10

penalty

-5

0-0

Smolko (-) jumps early.

PSU

PSU49

6:56

1st and 15

rush

0-0

Shotgun, handoff to Scott, rushes left tackle for 12. Robinson (+) makes a good initial block to spring Scott. Hall (+) shoves a defender enough to keep the lane open.

PSU

FSU39

6:19

2nd and 3

pass

Inc

0-0

Play action to Scott. Robinson drops to FSU 48 and throws deep for Butler at FSU 3. Butler had a step open, but couldn't close on the pass. Catchable.

PSU

FSU39

6:11

3rd and 3

rush

0-0

Draw up the middle, Scott (+) makes a nice cut to hit an open lane between Richardson and Smith, and rushes to FSU 10. Ignore the talking heads: Rush actually has no bearing on the play - he traps right, but the defensive tackle wasn't heading in the right direction anyway. Smith (++) blocks two guys to spring Scott.

PSU

FSU11

5:49

1st and 10

rush

0-0

Rush up the middle. Richardson (+) drives his man 5 yards to the right, clearing the lane for Scott. T. Golden (+) makes a critical downfield block which gives Scott an additional 6 yards

PSU

FSU3

5:04

2nd and 1

rush

3, TD

7-0

Rush up the middle. Good vision by Scott, but great O-line blocking. E.Z. Smith (+), T. Reed (+), C. Rush (+) all absolutely level their men. Easy job for Scott.

9 plays, 85 yards, TD

PSU

PSU4

3:36

1st and 10

rush

7-0

Rush up the middle. Scott's (++) best run of the night. Smolko flattens his man to give Scott a lane, and Snow (+) makes another block and then absolutely *motors* downfield to attempt to make another block if Scott manages to break free to the 17. T. Golden (-) unfortunately chooses the wrong downfield block, otherwise Scott is off for an easy TD. As it is he almost weaves his way around them, gaining an extra 4 yards.

PSU

PSU17

3:11

1st and 10

pass

Int.

7-0

Robinson chucks it deep for Norwood, who absolutely has no separation whatsoever. Bad read, throw was fine (hence the interception) Butler (+) makes a shoestring tackle at the PSU 48, saving a whole lot worse. Robinson should've seen the safety shading to the right, and the fact that Norwood wasn't getting separation. To be fair, however, Norwood also mistimed the throw.

PSU

PSU21

1:30

1st and 10

rush

7-0

Rush up the middle. Great vision by Scott (+), finding a sliver of a hole to get through the O-line, and then great speed to cut back to the 27

PSU

PSU27

0:51

2nd and 5

rush

7-0

Delayed handoff to Scott, rush left tackle. Brown (+,-) makes a great block, but holds it too long, allowing the lineman who got away from T. Reed (-) to get past him and make the tackle.

PSU

PSU29

0:08

3rd and 3

rush

7-0

QB draw. Great block by Hall (+) to give Robinson the lane. Robinson (+) dodges a crappy diving tackle and scoots for the first down, to the 35. Snow (-) misses what would've been a key block on FSU#81. Terrible tackling by FSU - if FSU#8 misses on a diving tackle, Robinson is off for a TD.

PSU

PSU34

15:00

1st and 10

pass

Inc

7-0

Robinson passes to King at the 47, who can't come down with it. Catchable throw. Robinson throws to the inside away from the defender - maybe a little much, but nothing too tough. King (-) doesn't anticipate where the ball will be and can't adjust.

PSU

PSU34

14:57

2nd and 10

rush

7-0

Delayed handoff to Scott (+). Rush up the middle, evades a tackle before being brought down at the 47. Great block by C. Rush (+) to spring Scott initially, and great block by Smolko (+) to give Scott the upfield lane

PSU

PSU47

14:31

1st and 10

rush

7-0

Fake swing pass right, QB scramble. The fake pass completely fools all but 1 FSU defender, and Robinson (+) rushes to the FSU44. Robinson should've cut right, but the fake pass was done so well that we'll give him a pass.

PSU

FSU44

14:06

2nd and in

rush

7-0

Shotgun, option handoff to Kinlaw, I think. If it was an option, not sure why Robinson didn't pull down and run, as all the FSU defenders followed Kinlaw. Good job by Kinlaw (+) to squirt through a hole and fall forward for the 1st.

PSU

FSU43

13:40

1st and 10

pass

7-0

Pass left flat to Butler (+) at the 29. Catchable ball, though a little low. Good route right behind the linebacker in zone, and good cut.

PSU

FSU29

13:11

1st and 10

pass

-4

7-0

Swing pass left to King, who is drilled *immediately* at the 34. Dead on, but a little slow. Probably wouldn't've mattered, as FSU just read the play entirely.

PSU

FSU34

12:25

2nd and 14

pass

Inc

7-0

Swing pass right to Norwood, pass dropped. Poor throw, but Robinson and Norwood were off a bit on timing. Tough to place blame.

PSU

FSU34

12:21

3rd and 14

pass

-13

7-0

Blitz of 7 by FSU. Scott (-) *completely* whiffs his blitz pickup, and Robinson tosses the ball away - intentional grounding. Horrible block by Smolko (-) allowing the DE to rush right around him, preventing Robinson from escaping the blitzer.

13 plays, 49 yards, punt

PSU

PSU44

9:35

1st and 10

-2

7-0

7-man blitz by FSU. Handoff to Scott running right - absolutely no room. C. Rush (-) was blocked backwards into Scott's path outside.

PSU

PSU42

8:57

2nd and 12

pass

Inc

7-0

Shotgun, throw to the sideline at FSU46. King (-) fell down, but overthrown.

PSU

PSU42

8:51

3rd and 12

pass/scr

7-0

Shotgun, looks to throw to Norwood, who's well covered. Tucks and runs to PSU43. FSU#7 stunted outside, no adjustment by Richardson (-) and T. Reed (-) who blocked no one, and FSU#7 forces Robinson to scramble into the line.

4 plays, -1 yard, punt

PSU

PSU33

6:24

1st and 10

rush

7-0

Shotgun, handoff to Scott right tackle. Robinson sells the fake fake handoff well, freezing the defender long enough for Scott to cut around. Scott (+) with a nice spin move to keep his forward momentum going to gain about 3 extra yards.

PSU

PSU44

5:57

1st and 10

rush

7-0

Handoff to Scott up the middle. Richardson (-) strangely avoids blocking the linebacker who tackles Scott to block an outside linebacker away from the play. Antolick (-) blown back on the play as well, restricting Scott's cutback lane.

PSU

PSU45

5:17

2nd and 9

pass/PF

inc/-15

7-0

Drop back, fake handoff, pass to Butler who slants to the outside and can't hang on. Catchable pass. Brown (--) makes a stupid late hit.

PSU

PSU30

5:11

3rd and 24

pass

7-0

Quick drop, pass to King right sideline at PSU36. Catchable pass.

5 plays, 3 yards, punt

PSU

PSU12

4:03

1st and 10

rush

7-7

Handoff to Scott, up the middle. T. Reed (-) blocks his man directly into Scott's path. Stopped at the LOS.

PSU

PSU13

3:22

2nd and 9

pass

inc

7-7

Drop back to pass. Norwood is open, but the RDE nearly blows by Scott causing Robinson to scramble out and attempt the throw to Norwood on the run. Bad throw, and should've stepped up in the pocket rather than scrambling out.

PSU

PSU13

3:15

3rd and 9

pass

inc

7-7

Shotgun. Pass to King who runs a comeback route on the left side. Overthrown.

4 plays, 1 yard, punt

PSU

PSU20

2:49

1st and 10

pass

7-13

Delayed 7 man blitz. Drop back to pass, Norwood (+) at the 33, spins to the 41. Dead on throw. Norwood lined up right, went in motion close to the line, then slanted across the field behind the linebackers.

PSU

PSU41

2:23

1st and 10

pass

7-13

Shotgun, pass to Smolko in the right flat at PSU41. Corner makes a great open field tackle. Dead on throw.

PSU

PSU42

1:42

2nd and 9

rush

7-13

Shotgun, handoff to Scott up the middle. Brown engages the LB, but is unable to open a running lane for Scott. Nice cut by Scott (+) to gain a couple more yards to the PSU47.

PSU

PSU47

1:13

3rd and 3

penalty

-5

7-13

Illegal substitution.

PSU

PSU43

0:58

3rd and 8

pass

inc

7-13

Pass to Parretta, at PSU35. Pass overthrown to PSU30. Bad throw. (throw is *not* to J.R. Zwierzynski, a LB)

6 plays, 23 yards, punt

PSU

FSU40

0:17

1st and 10

pass

7-13

Shotgun. Richardson (-) barely touches a DT who rushes past him, and gets to Robinson. Robinson hesitated, but threw a second before being hit to Norwood, who lined up 5 yards off the sideline to the left, and cuts to the sideline to catch the pass at the FSU24. Catchable pass. Beautiful catch.

PSU

FSU24

0:12

1st and 10

pass

24, TD

14-13

Shotgun. 7-man blitz by FSU. Deep pass to Kilmer 5 yards deep in the end zone. Dead on throw, great catch, who cares, fantastic, amazing play. Some bad blitz pickups, but there weren't enough blockers anyway (3 wide, 1 deep, 6 on the line and 1 TE went on a route, so only 6 blockers for 7 blitzers) so no bad grades.

2 plays, 40 yards, TD

PSU

PSU20

14:54

1st and 10

rush

-4

14-13

Rush up the middle. Defender blows by C. Rush (-), and grabs Scott at the PSU15. Brought down at the PSU16. All around terrible blocking.

PSU

PSU16

14:15

2nd and 14

pass

inc

14-13

6-man blitz by FSU. Snow (-) can't block the blitzing LB at all, and Robinson is forced outside to throw the ball away. Throwaway.

PSU

PSU16

14:06

3rd and 14

pass

inc

14-13

5-man blitz by FSU. Robinson throws to Butler in a crossing route, and ... hits the official. Uh. Bad luck?

PSU

PSU16

14:02

4th and 14

penalty

-5

14-13

False start, can't tell who.

5 plays, -9 yards, punt

PSU

PSU8

12:44

1st and 10

rush

14-13

Quick handoff to Scott. Brown (-) blocks right, completely letting the RDE make the quick tackle for short gain. Snow injured.

PSU

PSU9

12:07

2nd and 9

rush

-2

14-13

Shotgun, handoff to Kinlaw, rush right, TFL. Not sure what went wrong - Hall (-) lets the RDE go, who makes the tackle, to block the upfield safety. If Robinson had kept the ball and run right, he would've had 8-9 yards, and possibly a lot more.

PSU

PSU7

11:27

3rd and 11

pass

14-13

Drop back to pass, hits King right side at the 15, short of the 1st down. Dead on.

4 plays, 7 yards, punt

PSU

PSU13

8:40

1st and 10

pass

inc

14-13

Fake handoff, pass left sideline to King who completely drops the ball at the PSU21. In and out of his hands. Dead on throw.

PSU

PSU13

8:36

2nd and 10

pass/scr

14-13

Drop back to pass, scrambles (+) after first read isn't open. Nice spin move to avoid the second tackle. Brown (-) completely abandons a blocker who ends up tackling Robinson. (Yes, that is a missed late hit in my opinion.)

PSU

PSU20

7:47

3rd and 3

rush

-1

14-13

QB scramble (-). Robinson cuts to the inside when he probably could've cut to the outside, but he wasn't getting the first down this way. Scott (-) makes a really, really poor attempt at blocking a linebacker and gets levelled, preventing Robinson from an easy outside cut.

4 plays, 6 yards, punt

PSU

PSU1

5:07

1st and 10

rush

14-13

QB rush over center.

PSU

PSU2

4:27

2nd and 9

rush

14-13

Handoff to Scott running right tackle. Hahn (-) hold his block too long, allowing the LB to make the tackle.

PSU

PSU4

3:47

3rd and 7

pass

inc

14-13

Throw deep over center to Butler, who was double covered. Bad read, throw was catchable.

4 plays, 3 yards, punt

PSU

PSU33

1:23

1st and 10

rush

-1

14-13

OPTION! Robinson waits until the LDE has no chance and pitches it to King, who is unable to get to the edge. Play doesn't work because Norwood (-) is unable to make the downfield block to spring King.

PSU

PSU32

1:16

2nd and 11

pass/DPI

14-13

Quick pass to Norwood who runs a quick curl. Defensive pass interference prevents the catch. Catchable ball.

PSU

PSU35

1:12

1st and 10

rush

14-13

REVERSE! Robinson hands off to Butler who hands off to Norwood heading right. The entire FSU defense bites on the reverse. ?? (-) fails to hold his block long enough. Robinson (+) makes a great downfield block allowing Norwood's momentum to gain him a few more yards.

PSU

PSU43

0:30

2nd and 3

pass

14-13

Quick pass to Kilmer who runs a quick out right side at the PSU49. Dead on.

PSU

PSU49

0:23

1st and 10

pass

inc

14-13

6-man blitz by FSU. Throwaway. Looks like it might've been a broken screen, as Scott attempts to get upfield but runs into another defender.

PSU

PSU49

0:17

2nd and 10

pass

14-13

Quick toss to Kilmer who runs an out at the FSU46 and is tackled immediately. Dead on.

PSU

FSU46

0:11

3rd and 6

pass

inc

14-13

5-man blitz by FSU. Brown (--) allows the blitzer right through, forcing Robinson to throw it away.

8 plays, 13 yards, punt

PSU

FSU46

13:30

1st and 10

rush

-1

16-13

Handoff to Scott, rush right tackle. Smolko (-) is unable to clear the lane for Scott, who runs into him when he's shoved back.

PSU

FSU45

12:50

2nd and 11

pass

inc

16-13

Fake handoff to Scott running left. Robinson throws the ball for Smolko, behind him. Bad throw. C. Rush (-) jumps right, but whiffs on his block, forcing the rushed throw. The other defender was let in by the tight end Smolko who left on a route.

PSU

FSU45

12:44

3rd and 11

pass

16-13

5-man FSU delayed blitz. Shotgun. Norwood runs a crisp post and Robinson delivers a strike to the FSU32. Down at the FSU26. Dead on throw.

PSU

FSU26

12:21

1st and 10

pass

16-13

Drop back to pass. Scott (+) with a great pass protection pickup. Robinson throws to Norwood (+) at the 18. Catchable pass.

PSU

FSU18

11:37

2nd and 2

pass

inc

16-13

3-step drop, throws for Kilmer at the FSU13. Overthrown. E.Z. Smith (-) is unable to keep his blocker off, who drives him right into Robinson.

PSU

FSU18

11:33

3rd and 2

rush

16-13

OPTION! Two of the outside defenders key on Scott, and Robinson (++) cuts inside, forcing to a first down. Hahn (-) misses a block that would've given Robinson the edge.

PSU

FSU16

11:13

1st and 10

rush

16-13

Handoff to Scott, draw up the middle. Brown (-) is unable to force his defender back to create the gap at all, and Scott runs into his back and down at the 13.

PSU

FSU13

10:29

2nd and 7

pass/scr

16-13

Robinson drops back to pass. Brown (--) fails to block his defender (even with initial TE help). Robinson manages to get away from him, and manages to squirt forward to the 12.

PSU

FSU12

10:05

3rd and 6

penalty

16-13

Illegal substitution, defense.

PSU

FSU7

9:41

3rd and 1

rush

16-13

Handoff to Scott, rush left tackle to the FSU5. T. Reed (+) shifts left, and shoves his defender (and Scott) forward past the 1st down. Brown (-) lets his blocker get away from him, who cuts back inside and makes first contact with Scott.

PSU

FSU5

9:13

1st and g

fumble

16-13

E.Z. Smith (---) fumbles the snap (yes, it's clear in the replay that the ball wasn't snapped cleanly)

10 plays, 41 yards, fumble

PSU

PSU20

4:08

1st and 10

pass/RTP

inc, 15

16-16

Drop back, play action. Hahn (-) makes a halfhearted attempt at a block, which cuts off Robinson's running lane. Robinson makes an extremely dangerous throw - probably not to Smolko, but to King. Bad read. Roughing the passer as Robinson is pointlessly yanked to the ground after the throw.

PSU

PSU35

4:01

1st and 10

pass

16-16

Shotgun. Quick pass to Kilmer on a comeback route at the 39. Catchable.

PSU

PSU39

3:22

2nd and 6

penalty

-5

16-16

FSU shows blitz. False start on Kilmer (-).

PSU

PSU34

3:01

2nd and 11

pass/scr

-3

16-16

FSU shows blitz, backs off. Shotgun, terrible snap. Robinson (-) recovers, and attempts to scramble left end. Should've thrown it deep.

PSU

PSU31

2:16

3rd and 14

pass

16-16

Shotgun. E.Z. Smith (+) does a good job keeping the DT away from Robinson, who steps up and drills Smolko at the PSU49, who tumbles to the FSU49. Dead on. Nice route and catch by Smolko, but cuts right into the safety.

PSU

FSU49

2:05

1st and 10

pass

16-16

Shotgun. Robinson throws to Norwood cutting to the right sideline at the FSU27, tackled at the FSU11. Norwood (+) absolutely blows by the safety. Robinson has plenty of time as the defense isn't set by the time the ball is snapped. Dead on.

PSU

FSU11

1:37

1st and 10

rush

-2

16-16

Handoff to Scott running right guard. Hahn (-) is absolutely flattened by his blocking attempt, and Scott runs into Brown and is tackled at the FSU13.

PSU

FSU13

1:27

2nd and 12

rush

-1

16-16

Handoff to Scott running left. E.Z. Smith (-) is completely beaten by his blocker, who trips up Scott at the FSU15. Scott falls to the FSU14.

PSU

FSU14

1:23

3rd and 13

rush

16-16

QB rush over center.

9 plays, 68 yards, missed FG

PSU

FSU25

OT1

1st and 10

rush

16-16

Handoff to Scott running left guard. C. Rush (-) stumbles after his first block and can't get to the LB, who tackles Scott at the FSU24. Hahn (+), T. Reed (+) both nail their blocks, opening a wide running lane if the LB is picked up.

PSU

FSU24

OT1

2nd and 9

rush

16-16

Drop back to pass, rushes middle. E.Z. Smith (--) doesn't fully pass his defender, who tackles Robinson at the FSU23, off to Rush, and then whiffs on a tackle of the LB.

PSU

FSU23

OT1

3rd and 8

rush

16-16

Drop back to pass, rushes left middle. E.Z. Smith (--) repeats his previous play exactly, except this time he fails to pass to T. Reed while going out to block an LB he whiffs on. Robinson is tackled at the FSU21.

4 plays, 4 yards, missed FG

PSU

FSU25

OT2

1st and 10

pass

16-16

Shotgun. Robinson fires to Norwood crossing at the FSU20, who is drilled immediately. Catchable ball - should've been thrown earlier to allow Norwood to cut away from the defender.

PSU

FSU20

OT2

2nd and 5

pass

inc

16-16

Shotgun. 7-man blitz by FSU (2 outside from the line, 1 from MLB). Picked up. Robinson throws to the back right of the end zone. Too far for Butler. Just barely overthrown.

PSU

FSU20

OT2

3rd and 5

pass

16-16

3-man line. Rush from the right outside and inside linebacker. T. Reed (+) redirects the right inside linebacker past Robinson, who throws to Kilmer at the FSU17 who curled from the left slot across the middle. Kilmer (+) leaps a defender to the FSU2. Dead on.

PSU

FSU2

OT2

1st and g

rush

16-16

7 men on the line. Handoff to Scott, running right. Hahn nearly blocks 3 men to clear a lane for Scott, but can't. Scott is tackled and stretches (?!) to the 1.

PSU

FSU1

OT2

2nd and g

rush

1, TD

23-16

Same alignment as before. Option run left, Robinson pitches to Scott, who runs for a TD. Great blocks by Hall (+) and Brown (+) to seal off the left side of the line.

5 plays, 25 yards, TD

PSU

FSU25

OT3

1st and 10

rush

23-23

Shotgun, hand off to Scott (+) running left. T. Reed (--) has the RDT spin away from him, and then continues to stare at him as he rolls on the ground, completely ignoring the RDE a foot in front of him who tackles Scott at the 25. Good effort by Scott to elude the attempted tackle by the RDT.

PSU

FSU25

OT3

2nd and 10

pass

23-23

Screen pass right, dead on. This run is all King (++) as he motors to the right sideline to the FSU17. Good job by T. Golden juking a defender to slow him down enough for King to pass him, but he stumbled coming out of it and couldn't make a downfield block

PSU

FSU16

OT3

3rd and 2

rush

23-23

7 men on the line for FSU. Fake handoff to Hahn, Robinson runs right. Hahn gets flattened in an attempt to block the right LB, but no minus because Robinson (+) was fast enough to get by him with the extra quarter-second that gave. Great downfield block by Scott (+) to give Robinson the first down at the FSU13. Also great block by T. Reed (+) downfield as well.

PSU

FSU13

OT3

1st and 10

rush

23-23

Handoff to Scott up the middle. Fake handoff to King running left from the WR spot. I think Hahn (--) thinks the handoff to King was real. He heads out to pick up the left LB along the path that King would've been taking, which allows the LDE in to make the first hit. It's either him or Brown, but Brown makes a good block on the LDT and C. Rush goes upfield to block the MLB, so I think it's Hahn. Good effort by Scott (+) to dodge the LDE's first tackle and pick up a yard to the FSU12.

5 plays, 12 yards, FG

Passing performance

This one's easy. Robinson had a very good day. While 21/39 with 1 INT and 1 TD doesn't look that good, receivers were dropping balls for a good portion of the game, with the worst being King's drop at the sidelines. The real star, however, are the number of times where Robinson simply nailed a receiver in a crossing route and the receiver never lost a step. Just a word on rating: I say dead on (DO) when the receiver has to make little if any adjustments to catch the ball, and if the ball is placed in a position where the receiver can continue running. If the ball is catchable with effort, but the receiver no longer can continue running, it's catchable (CA). If the ball is overthrown/underthrown/wobbly/bad throw/whatever, it's inaccurate (IN). If the ball is thrown to a receiver who's covered too well to possibly make the catch, it's a bad read (BR). If a ball is clearly thrown away, that's a throwaway. And if a ball hits something midair (in this game, only an official's hat) that's batted (BT).

DO	CA	IN	TA	BR	BT
16	10	8	3	3	1

Note that the dead-ons are inflated somewhat by the preponderance of swing passes. They were pretty swing passes, though. Robinson's three bad reads: the interception, the pass where Butler was double covered, and the pass where Robinson scrambled right, and threw the ball before a late hit got a roughing the passer penalty. That's really not that bad, and given the number of gorgeous throws he had, this was definitely a good day.

Receivers: the good, the bad, the ugly

Norwood and Kilmer obviously stepped up. Norwood and Robinson's timing was off on two plays - a swing play right, and very unfortunately, the interception downfield. Norwood is really coming along. He's a very crisp route runner, and is really finding the holes in zones well. Couple that with Derrick Williams returning next year for pure downfield speed, and my word, we've got a dangerous #1/#2 receiving threat.

And it also was a great day for Kilmer to have his best game as a receiver, too. Was it because he's a senior? Who knows. But what a fantastic catch at the end of the first half.

As for Butler and King: Butler looked fantastic earlier in the year, and then cooled off dramatically. Officially, he had 1 reception for 13 yards - but was thrown to six times. What happened? That part's easy: Butler is a good receiver, but he's not a deep receiver like Williams is. 3 of those 6 throws were deep throws (20+ yards). One was a dropped pass, one hit the official, and the last he caught. Butler was typically sent on the deep routes.

So it's a little unfair to criticize Butler, because he was forced into the deep role when Williams went out, and he's not a deep receiver. However, Norwood looked fantastic as a route runner, and so Butler might get forced back on defense by the preponderance of talent (Williams/Norwood/Golden/Rubin/Bell/King) that Penn State has at WR. Seriously, that much top end talent at WR is nuts (and people still want Vidal Hazelton!).

King's (complete) passes are mostly screens. Anything over 10 yards went incomplete. King will shift back to defense almost entirely next year, but he runs Williams's role extremely well, and so there will be a few plays next year with Williams and King lined up to make the defense play "guess who the screen's going to!" and "chase the speedy guy".

Quick note: while Terrell Golden didn't have a catch, he was fast enough to draw defenders away from receivers several times, and he had several good downfield blocks. Rubin and Golden fill similar roles (6'3", 213, and 6'3", 212), but Golden's had experience this year now. Golden already redshirted, so it'll be interesting to see what the coaches do with Rubin next year. Probably will be an interesting battle.

Rushing

Well, we know that Tony Hunt didn't have much of a game, but with only three plays, it's tough to criticize. Scott stepped in well, and by his second series was running extremely well, even dodging players after poor blocks.

Scott's "stalling" in the second half is mainly due to poor blocking. Once Snow was injured, Hahn had a very poor game and Scott was held to very short gains. Scott didn't have a rush over 5 yards after Snow went out. Rushes after Snow: 2, -1, 3, 2, -2, -1, 1, 1, 1, 1.

That said, I'm not sure what to expect from Scott. Hunt's shown some ability to get yardage after contact, which Scott had a lot of trouble doing. Still, it's nice to know there's speed if Hunt gets injured again.

Blocking and the future!

Ah, here's where I outdo Brian's original UFR again with a block review. Blocking was a very mixed bag - early on, the line was shoving the FSU defenders around well, and the only thing that prevented a few 80-yard runs was a poor decision or two by a wide receiver on a safety. That's just a fantastic sign.

But by the end of the game, the blocking was much worse, which showed in both the rushing totals and the pass protection. Robinson was forced out of the pocket often, rushed throws, and was sacked. A lot of that was BranDon Snow going out, as mentioned above. Hahn is a spunky blocker - on one run above, he took on three blockers and actually held them for a second, but not long enough for Scott to get past. But he just doesn't have the size - on two plays he was absolutely levelled without slowing down the defender at all. Snow is a big, big key to our rushing success next year. Hahn, however, is a sophomore, but almost 20 pounds lighter than Snow, and it shows. He absolutely needs to bulk up more to be a starting fullback.

And this is where I get in trouble: Blocking/Penalty grades -

Rush: -3
Reed: -2
Richardson: -2
Brown: -9
Smith: -5

Smolko: -1
Hall: 2
Hahn: -5
Snow: 1
Antolick: -1

Golden: 0
Butler: 1
Hunt: -2
Scott: -1?!
Norwood: -1
Kilmer: -1

Yes, Brown's got the lowest grade of all of the offensive linemen. He had a horrendous game, just littered with poor blocks, and no real dominating performances to make up for them. (Smith had about three good plays to make up for that awful fumbled snap). However, keep in mind that the offensive line as a whole was pretty bad in the second half, and Brown was unremarkable the first half. Given that he's at LT, and the importance of that position, I think he'll be fine. But he definitely did not shine this game at all.

Summary

Yah. So. Summary. What to look for for next year? Running game should still be top notch - Hunt with Snow and Hall as blockers should be fine, and I'm sure Brown will improve. Hopefully Hahn puts on a few pounds and his senior year could be good. He's got spunk. Scott's decent at pass protection. Better than Hunt was on his one play, at least. So they both could get some playing time.

As for the wide receivers, Norwood really stood out this game. Great route running, great hands. King runs screens and hitches well, but he'll probably be primarily defense next year. With Williams back, expect the starting 3 wide receivers to be Williams/Norwood/Golden, although Rubin could sneak in there instead of Golden.

3 more years of Norwood and Williams? You've got to be kidding me. Talk about a treasure trove.

UFR later today

2006-02-06T07:27:00.000-08:00

Sorry Upon Further Review didn't get out on Friday - killer headache ended the day very early for me. It'll be up later today.

Tidbit: Although lots of people will talk about how Penn State only has one offensive lineman coming back, that's a little silly. They keep their fullback, who's very good at blitz pickup, and blocking tight end (Patrick Hall) who's a very good blocker. Austin Scott also looked very good at pass protection as well. Tony Hunt less so in the Orange Bowl, but Hunt went out early - injured on an awful downfield block, mind you - so I give him a bit of a free pass. Which means Penn State's got at least 4 pass protection blockers returning.

Nittany Blog has Jordan Lyons as the starting TE next year, but unless I missed something about Hall (he does have one more year of eligibility), he absolutely should be the starting TE next year.

(Not Completely Unlike) Upon Further Review: Orange Bowl Special Teams

2006-02-02T10:44:00.000-08:00

Fixed. Thanks to Brian for informing me about Blogger's retarded "line break=br tag" idiocy.

Special Teams/Returns

FSU

KO/65

0-0

FSU

FSU36

12:58

4th and 26

punt/29

0-0

Scirrotto (-) makes a terrible block on FSU#83, forcing a fair catch at PSU 35

FSU

FSU33

8:08

4th and 14

punt/56

0-0

Punt to the PSU 11. Lowry advances to the 15. Scirotto (-) is completely outrun by FSU gunner (#22), and then makes a poor attempt at a block.

FSU

FSU40

3:52

4th and 8

punt/53

-3

7-0

Punt to the 7. Lowry (--) has to backpedal from the 17, leading to the block in the back by Sales. Lowry cuts to the outside when he has two blockers and two men to beat on the outside. Terrible runback. Should've been lined up deeper (he was lined up for a 35-40 yard punt) and bad vision.

FSU

FSU46

1:38

4th and 16

punt/33

7-0

Punt to the 21. Lowry has to run up from the 10, and fair catches. Understandable considering the previous kick was to the 10.

FSU

FSU20

9:42

4th and 19

punt/36

7-0

Punt, fair caught by Lowry (-) at the 44. Lowry had a lane to his right. Shouldn't've fair caught.

FSU

KO/64

7-7

Kickoff to the FSU1. #88 (?) Darling (-) completely whiffs a block, forcing King to pick it up, and preventing him from blocking FSU#83, who makes the tackle at the PSU12

FSU

KO/65

7-13

FSU

FSU5

0:23

4th and 8

punt/55

7-13

Punt to FSU40. Lowry was lined up ~FSU45. Fair caught.

FSU

KO/60

14-13

Kick to the 5. Kilmer (-) gets burned by a spin move, and Kinlaw is brought down at the 20.

FSU

FSU46

12:55

4th and 5

punt/46

DOWN

14-13

Punt to the 21. Bounces to the PSU8, Lowry (-) lets it go. Bad choice - he wasn't that close to the end zone.

FSU

PSU47

8:55

4th and 7

punt/34

DOWN

14-13

Punt to the PSU18, left. Lowry is lined up right and has no chance to do anything on it. Bounces to the PSU13.

FSU

PSU34

5:15

4th and 5

punt/33

DOWN

14-13

Lowry lined up at the 10 (!?) and someone lets the left gunner by them completely (giving up at the 15?!) allowing him to catch it at the 1.

FSU

FK/30

16-13

Free kick to the FSU49, bounces to the PSU43, where Hahn almost makes a play for it. King picks it up at the PSU35 and cuts to the FSU46. Hall (-) pointlessly block to the left, but King avoids the tackle anyway. Hahn (+) makes a nice block to gain a few more yards. Double personal fouls offsetting after a shouting match.

FSU

KO/65

16-16

Special Teams/Coverage

PSU

KO/65

PSU

PSU40

10:36

4th and 5

punt/51

0-0

Punt to the FSU9. Gunners forced away from the play. E.Z. Smith (-) has nowhere near enough speed to cut FSU#26 down before being brought down at the 38

PSU

KO/62

7-0

Kickoff to the FSU3. Runback to FSU 38. Norwood (-) reads the wrong person as kickoff returner and takes a terrible angle, allowing a cutback to the right. Lowry saves the play by seeing the open lane and immediately taking the angle to the sideline.

PSU

FSU47

12:16

4th and 27

punt/33

7-0

Punt (-) to the 14, fair caught. Good job in coverage, but punt was short.

PSU

PSU43

8:09

4th and 11

punt40

7-0

Punt to FSU17. Gunners forced away from the play. E.Z. Smith (-) takes a poor angle, missing the tackle. Downed at FSU35.

PSU

PSU36

4:31

4th and 18

punt/50

86, TD

7-7

Punt to FSU14. Gunner takes the wrong angle, but the real killer here is one FSU defender blocking Hahn, Lee (-), and E.Z. Smith. Of course, he does this via a block in the back to Hahn, which frees him to block E.Z. Smith just as the defender cuts by him. No official was really in a position to see it, unfortunately. Kapinos (-) takes a horrible angle.

PSU

PSU13

3:10

4th and 9

punt/46

7-7

Punt (-) to PSU46, bounce to FSU41. Kilmer makes a nice open field tackle, but the bouncing punt is the reason for the lack of advance. Returner falls forward to FSU43.

PSU

PSU43

0:52

4th and 8

punt/40

7-13

Punt (+) to FSU 3. Out of bounds.

PSU

KO/59

end of half

14-13

Kick to the 6. Zemaitis takes a correct angle and forces him to the outside and OB. No bad grades because of end of half.

PSU

PSU11

14:02

4th and 19

punt/48

DOWN

14-13

Punt to the FSU48, bounces to the FSU41. No, the ball didn't touch the FSU defender, not that it mattered as FSU would've recovered anyway. Downed by PSU. Good job by Johnson (+), Kilmer (+) blowing by their blockers (finally).

PSU

PSU15

10:40

4th and 3

punt/45

14-13

Punt to the FSU40. Gunners are blocked and stumble. Lee (+) makes a good open field tackle at the 50.

PSU

PSU19

7:01

4th and 4

punt/43

14-13

Punt to FSU38. Gunner misses the initial hit, and T. Shaw (-) takes a poor angle. Hahn might get a minus here except there might be a block in the back on him. Poz, Kilmer make tackle at PSU40.

PSU

PSU4

3:38

4th and 7

punt/38

-10

14-13

Punt to the PSU39, bounces to the PSU42. T. Shaw (-) slips trying to correct a bad angle. Block in the back (called) prevents Hahn from making the tackle.

PSU

FSU46

0:04

4th and 6

punt/39

DOWN

14-13

Nice punt (+) to the FSU7. Downed by PSU.

That Lowry guy

Sigh. What to write. Lowry had been bad as a punt returner all year, and we know that. Thankfully, I can say convincingly that a lot of the problems in this game with returns were due to shockingly bad decisions by Lowry. And to Lowry's defense, I have to say that FSU's punting was incredibly erratic, making gauging distances difficult. But lining up at the 10 when the offense is on the PSU34 is just silly, and when the blocking actually worked, Lowry cut the wrong direction. I don't know if where Lowry needs to line up is his own choice, or the coach's. If it's the coach's, then we need a special teams coach. Badly.

King showed very good running on the free kick return. I can't fault Kinlaw, as his only return chances were thwarted by crappy blocking. Still, King also didn't have wonderful blocking on his only return, and he showed a bit more dexterity in dodging tacklers. King should get a shot as a punt returner - the only concern there is catching the ball, though.

We still really need a special teams coach, though. Giving up on staying with the gunner is completely unforgivable - on one play, if they had stayed with him just five more yards, it's conceivable he wouldn't've been able to down the ball at the 1.

Coverage teams

Crap. I have to talk about these? Shoot. This is the harder part. Kilmer was a special teams maven all season, and did a great job as a gunner bringing down the returner. Uh. Not so much today. Which is unfortunate, as he's leaving, and the rest of the coverage group doesn't appear to be that good. Shaw took a poor angle twice, which gave up a 22 yard return, and would've given up another long one if the refs hadn't seen Hahn's block in the back.

Was Kilmer struggling because he was being used so much on offense? That'd make sense to me, but I really hope Penn State can find a gunner who won't be forced out so easily next year. Norwood/Johnson were both pretty much completely ineffective, either being blocked away from the play, choosing the wrong guy, or whiffing completely on the initial hit.

The punt return for a TD was a disaster, as you can see above. There was no initial block in the back to the gunner (can't read number) who took the wrong angle. But it does look like Hahn was blocked in the back, and fell into Lee, which freed up the defender to take out Smith. That kinda cleared things up for the punt returner.

Grades

Scirotto: -2
Lowry: -4?!
Darling: -1
Kilmer: 0
Hahn: 2
Hall: 0
Smith: -2
Norwood: -1
Lee: 0
Kapinos: -1
Johnson: 1
Shaw: -2

Kicking/punting:

Okay, so Kelly can't kick under pressure yet. Got it. Comprende. Message received. Again. Kickoff length was fine. Kapinos's punts were in the mid-40s all day, but the gunners can't handle that much length. He's got to learn to adjust to them better. Anything over high 30s, low 40s gave the gunners trouble.

Offense up maybe tomorrow, maybe not till next week. Defense up after that. Sorry to keep everyone waiting. I do promise that there'll be some useful information about next year's roster there.

Orange Bowl observations

2006-02-01T08:11:00.000-08:00

So I've just finished breaking down every play in the Orange Bowl. In the next few days I'm should be posting the first "Not Completely Unlike Upon Further Review" (shamelessly taken from mgoblog). Mine's better than his, however - it'll have special teams as well. Ha, Brian! Note that this is mainly because Penn State's special teams were beyond awful, but hey.

Bit of a glossary beforehand: I grade blocks, running, and route receiving on a scale similar to mgoblog's, but probably a little stretched.

no mark: did job, or had no observable outcome on the play. Examples: holding place in a block.
+ : did job well. Examples: blocking a defender back to open a lane. Making a difficult tackle.
++ : did job very well. Usually means reacted very quickly to the play and shut it down for less than it should've gotten, or went beyond the initial block, etc.
+++ : did job inhumanly well. Knew the play, read the play, and probably singlehandedly caused a turnover or put points up.
- : Did job poorly. Examples: being blocked backwards/beaten. Missing a tackle.
-- : Did job very poorly. Examples: Completely missing a block (usually not even trying).
--- : Did job inhumanly poorly. Like, oh, say, E.Z. Smith fumbling the snap.
?! : means "I have no idea why this person did this. It looks intensely dumb." Examples are Lowry lining up at the 10 yard line when the punter is punting from the 40, or Scott stretching the ball out on the goal line stand in 2nd OT.

So two tidbits to whet your appetite: two of my favorite plays from the latter half.

FSU, PSU38, 6:38, 1st and 10, pass, interception: (Poor) fake handoff, throw deep right to PSU15. Zemaitis (+++) jumps the receiver's cut, intercepts. Lowry, Phillips, Harrell with good blocks on the return to FSU33. Vintage Zemaitis - running at less than full speed, giving the receiver a bit of a cushion, then going full-out to the throwing point.

and

FSU, FSU8, 13:42, 3rd and 9, pass, safety: Shotgun. J. Shaw (+++) shoves his blocker to the ground. Alford (+) also shoves by his blocker, and Hali would've as well barring a hold. Paxson (++) follows the RB on the screen pattern. QB pointlessly throws the ball away while in the end zone. Unsportsmanlike conduct on FSU.

And also, some observations:

I missed this. Paul Cronin played in the Orange Bowl. Cronin was ejected from the team in October. Did he play before this game? Why was there no media coverage about this? I'm surprised.
I feel sorry for Brian from mgoblog, who's trying to import gamebook data into a database for college football. Brian, just so you know - Robinson did not attempt to complete a pass to J.R. Zwierzynski, a linebacker - this is what the official gamebook lists: P 3-7 P44 Robinson, M. pass incomplete to Zwierzynski, JR. The stadium official misread #25 as #35.
Also, I don't have any clue who #88 is. gopsusports lists it as either Kevin Darling or Brennen Coakley, but Darling is listed in the gamebook as #39. Coakley isn't listed, so I'm going to go with Darling right now.
Check out the participation report. What's with the creative position naming? Lowry's listed as HERO (SS? maybe?), for other teams elsewhere I've seen Mike/Will/Buck for the linebackers - okay, that's not so uncommon, though I'm used to Mike/Will/Sam. I've also seen Mike/Will/Nik. Anyone know of a list of all the position nicknames? Or 'weirdo position name to traditional position name' conversions?

That's all for now: more in the next few days - what to look for from Jay Alford, Levi Brown. Also, why to be very, very glad that BranDon Snow is a junior.

What the heck is going on with Michael Robinson?

2006-01-30T08:26:00.000-08:00

Okay. I'm really, really confused by the NFL now.

Scouts have uniformly been saying that Robinson has no chance at playing QB in the NFL. I agree that there's no way that Robinson is anywhere near ready to start in the NFL. He simply hasn't had enough experience. Whether or not he's incapable of playing QB is another thing.

Robinson's a nice guy - soft spoken, and very deferential. If you've read his articles at the CDT, you'll know what I mean. He's played RB, WR, kick returner, and QB at Penn State. Everything he was asked. Whatever he's asked to do, he'll do. And he'll listen to the advice that other people give.

But here's the part that confuses me. Norm Chow - you know, the offensive coordinator for an NFL team - told Robinson to continue to be a quarterback.

"The scouts want to see me do other things," Robinson said. "When I asked Norm about it, he said, 'Mike, you're a heck of a quarterback. I kind of shy away from doing that.' That made me feel good."

And Craig Johnson - quarterbacks coach for, you know, an NFL team, has said

"Michael is an athlete who has played a number of different positions. He has shown he can lead the team. If guys are looking for a run-pass type, he has been accurate enough and has made big plays in big games. He's going to have to find a team that likes that role. That's the way he'll make it in the NFL.

And so Robinson practiced several days at QB. Then, during the game, he saw action exclusively at QB. And afterwards, Jeff Fisher - head coach for, you know, an NFL team said

Tennessee Titans' head coach Jeff Fisher (head coach of the North squad) was asked at halftime about the position Robinson should play in the NFL, to which he said he feels he deserves a shot at quarterback and called him one of the best athletes on the field this week.

What the heck is going on? Are they just blowing smoke for him? If so, that's ridiculous - that's incredibly cruel for an impressionable young kid. Or do they really think he can play QB? What am I missing? Yah, all the scouts are saying "no way at QB", but these guys coach in the NFL, and I'd kinda figure they have a better idea of what he can do than they do.

EXCLUSIVE! How to defeat Michigan!

2006-01-26T18:53:00.000-08:00

Jason Avant has apparently slipped and given away the game plan for defeating Michigan in an interview on ESPN.com:

BK-The Burger King: What do you think of my amazing commercials? Do you think you could cover me? Or could I cover you?

SportsNation Jason Avant: You're too good! I can't cover you! You move like lightning!

Can apparently totally take Jason Avant

This may affect Avant's draft stock, as the Burger King has been seen playing on at least three different NFL teams.

Other gems from the interview - from Nick Mangold (OSU center):

Ryan (NJ): Hey Nick, good luck to you at the next level. How did PSU compare to Texas, since you played both this year?

SportsNation Nick Mangold: I thought PSU was actually better on defense. They gave us more problems. But either way, they were both great teams and that's why they finished in the top five.

I always knew centers were the smartest guys on the team.

There's also some talk about Michael Robinson, who - as we expected - struggled playing QB. In some sense I do wonder whether or not a team might gamble and have Robinson as a practice squad QB, with a backup plan as a WR/kick returner (so on the main roster). Robinson's had very little time as a QB, and his main problem is his accuracy (improvable) and footwork (understandable, and improvable). He'll learn.

Mother of God nuttiness

2006-01-25T18:31:00.000-08:00

First point: I have to apologize to FOX Sports. Although I ridiculed them for the simulated playoff box score, and the remaining games still seemed wrong, Penn State advanced to the playoffs and lost to USC. So, I, uh, can't really argue there. Yah. Wonder how that happened. So just pretend the rant below never happened, okay?

Still here? Great.

Now I get to make fun of them. Holy freaking smokes, Batman. The one thing I know about the Big Ten next year is that I know nothing. The two constants in the Big Ten, Penn State's defense and Ohio State's defense, are returning a grand total of 6 players. I don't worry about Penn State's defense that much: the only unit which is being wholesale replaced is the secondary, and Justin King saw a lot of time at corner before Williams' injury, and Donnie Johnson saw a fair amount of time at nickel after King went to offense.

Ohio State's defense, though - that's a different story. Gone are the linebackers, and the secondary, and all that's left are two starters on the defensive line. And guess which unit I thought was the weakest on the Buckeyes last year? Yah. D-line. And I have to echo Buckeye Commentary in saying that starting 3 LBs who had barely any starting experience at all is a big, big worry. Funniest line from the blurb about OSU: "Why Ohio State isn't the pre-preseason #1: ... The top nine tacklers from last year's D are gone." Man, must be a relief that the it isn't any more! At least they have the uh, two fewest tacklers in the starting defense. Buckeye Commentary isn't kidding when he says "I know some people think we reload, not rebuild." Jeez.

Sure, OSU could be fine. But to me, that'd be a surprise more than something I'd expect. I have high hopes for Penn State next year, as there's a lot of talent on that team, but I agree with the concerns about the offensive line and quarterback, so I can understand a 9-3 finish. And heck, road wins vs Notre Dame and Ohio State both would be really crazy. But predicting OSU as a preseason #5? That's way too optimistic.

I really hate to state this here - I'll do preseason evaluations of Big Ten teams later, but if I was going to put 1 Big Ten team in the Top 10, it'd be - really, don't kill me - Michigan. I don't see Michigan's offense declining - heck, I see it improving, as Henne has talent, just not consistency. He'll get that consistency next year. And Michigan's got a whole freaking slew of talent waiting in the wings on defense. Look seriously at the 2005 season - Michigan was close in every game, and they're replacing a grand total of 4 starters on defense, and 5 on offense. Sorry, I know half of PSU fans hate Michigan now (50% better than OSU fans, though!) but if I had to pick a 2006 Big Ten champ other than PSU, it'd be Michigan. No question.

Now, I'm not predicting Michigan to be the national champion. Are you kidding me? Realistically both PSU and OSU will likely decline, and Michigan will improve. And we all play each other. And OSU plays Texas. Michigan and us play Notre Dame. On the road. Ha ha, we're all screwed.

~~Oh, and MGoBlog: neat new site layout, now add an archive link to the side. Pretty please. I had to manually type in the standard Blogger archive URL in order to get one. Grr.~~ I swear to God, those archive links on the left weren't there when I looked last. Or I'm a moron. Either one, really.

Recruiting, and more

2006-01-25T06:27:00.000-08:00

For those of you who don't follow recruiting, Penn State's literally lighting up the boards recently with a couple of high profile recruits. Pat Devlin (5th ranked QB in the country) switched his commitment from Miami after they fired a slew of coaches (don't fire coaches after losing seasons!), and the Nittany Lions just picked up the 5th ranked offensive lineman, Antonio Logan-El. There's whispers that Vidal Hazelton, the 2nd ranked wide receiver in the country, might be reconsidering USC now that Pat Devlin is coming to PSU. That would be a huge coup for Penn State.

All in all, Penn State now ranks 5th at Rivals.com's rankings, top in the Big Ten, and just shy of Notre Dame, who's also having a great year thanks to Weis and their Fiesta Bowl appearance. Scout.com ranks Penn State 6th, still top in the Big Ten, and with a sizable lead over Ohio State.

Great news for the future at Penn State. As the Nittany Blog stated, those who are expecting Penn State to return to doormat status will be sorely disappointed.

Update 2

2006-01-10T14:20:00.000-08:00

My father-in-law passed away on Saturday, January 7th. Not much more to update other than to say that he was able to watch the game with me. He slept through a lot of the second half (but who didn't?) but was awake through the overtimes. It was a lot of fun at an especially stressful time.

Update...

2006-01-02T14:44:00.000-08:00

Just a bit of an update as to why there's been no new posts: I'm going to have to put BBNW temporarily on hold - probably for a few weeks - due to a family emergency - my father-in-law is in the hospital in very serious condition, and I don't have much time for football. I'm hoping he's strong enough to watch the Penn State game tomorrow, but that might be asking too much.

Will update later. Thanks for your patience.

Dear Fox Sports:

2005-12-20T08:29:00.000-08:00

Dear Fox Sports:

While I find the computer-simulated 16-team playoff amusing, I have to ask: may I have some of whatever drugs the statisticians who programmed the simulation are smoking?

Seriously. Let's take a look at the hypothetical "Penn State-Tulsa" matchup. Austin Scott with 5 carries? The only games in which Austin Scott had more than 5 carries were the Minnesota, Illinois, and Cincinnati games. You know, the ones where the average margin of victory was thirty-seven points. And Scott's carrying in the first quarter? Yah, okay.

So, what went wrong? What's wrong with this simulation? What else is going on? Let's see. Penn State's only rushers are Robinson (151 yards), Hunt (119 yards), and Scott (20 yards). That's weird. In essentially every game this year, Justin King has also rushed for a few. Why would he be missing? Oh - probably because you probably forgot to move him back over to offense after removing Derrick Williams.

That's not all that's strange, though. The only sacks listed are Nolan McCready (who dropped behind Lowry in the offseason this year) and Chris Harrell, who didn't have a sack all year (and wasn't really likely to get one, as we almost never safety blitzed). Not one listed for the defensive line or linebackers - strange.

Plus Robinson passes 10 times, for only 87 yards? That's weird, because he hasn't had that kind of yards-per-completion since the South Florida game. The rest of the season he's been averaging 15 yards per completion. And the long is 16 yards here?

So let's put all this together. Mixing Scott and Hunt. No WR runs. Short yardage passes. What have I just described? Oh, yeah. Last year's team.

From the website, you list WhatIfSports.com as the partnership for this, which is probably where the simulations were run. But if I had to guess, it looks like the simulation was based on a preseason evaluation of Penn State (which... is pretty much what the NCAA games for console systems are). Well, if that's true, we should see it in the results of the games: oh wait, we do! There's Ohio State running roughshod over its competition, Notre Dame also struggling, and Florida State demolishing Oregon. (Penn State, Notre Dame, and Oregon, were the three teams who ended very highly-ranked that were missing at the beginning of the season)

So forgive me if I'm wrong. If it's all just a crazy, wacky coincidence that the box score, along with the players listed, and the tendencies of the teams looks disturbingly like what someone not that knowledgeable about the team would've predicted from 2004. But if you're going to have fun, and do the whole "what if" thing, at least, y'know, have the decency to base it on this season. We know USC, Texas, and Ohio State were touted as the bee's knees at the beginning of the year. Thank you.

But guess what? Some teams didn't live up to their expectations. And others far exceeded them. How bout joining the rest of us in reality?

Thanks so much,
Bleed Blue 'n White

(Seriously, Penn State versus Tulsa? The Tulsa that Minnesota destroyed at the beginning of the year?)

Edit: Fox Sports also has video game simulations of the outcomes of the bowls. Not surprisingly, Florida State (preseason #11 or so) crushes Penn State. Never would've guessed. Tell me again, why don't they come out with video games after the freaking season is over?

Ranking the BCS bowls, party style!

2005-12-16T10:39:00.000-08:00

It's been a while since I've had complete silliness here, so time to make up for that. Rivals.com has the gift packages available, so let's go through each of the BCS bowls, and see who got screwed, and who's taking home the bling. Remember, they all had a $500 limit, so they should be roughly equal quality.

Just as an introduction: what should we have in a gift package? Well, BBNW (that's "Bleed Blue 'n White" for you non-frequent readers... that is, everyone but Mike) thinks you need three main categories, at a minimum.

Big-ticket bling item
Commemorative bling
Something to carry it all home in

Rose Bowl: USC versus Texas

• Sony PSP
• Madden NFL 2006
• Rose Bowl watch and backpack
• New Era hat and knapsack
• Commemorative Rose Bowl flip coin
• Rose Bowl souvenir football
• The Longest Yard DVD

OK, the PSP is definitely bling-worthy. Videogame afficionados can argue Nintendo versus Sony, but it's hard to deny that the sleek PSP isn't going to draw more looks for a football jock than tapping a little screen and yelling at a cyber-puppy. Presumedly the NFL 2006 is for the PSP itself.

The Rose Bowl watch and football is nice - but what's up with the commemorative flip coin? C'mon, this is the national championship! Take a nice lady back to your room, "hey, wanna see my commemorative flip coin that I got from the Rose Bowl?" Maybe you can stick it beside your stamp collection.

The backpack is also a little weird - especially when they also get a knapsack as well. C'mon, let's be serious - how many books are these guys gonna be carrying around? Why not get them something more useful, like a Rose Bowl CD case?

Longest Yard DVD: that's right, let's give the kids a movie about an NFL star who gambles, throws games, then steals a car and goes on a driving rampage, before redeeming himself by winning a football game in prison. Might not be the right message. Plus, it stinks.

Final Grade: B+. Good start with the PSP, but the commemorative flip coin? C'mon.

Orange Bowl: Penn State versus Florida State

• Sony PSP
• Madden NFL 2006 and NBA Live 2006
• Ogio duffel bag
• Commemorative hat and team plaque
• Friday Night Lights DVD
• ESPN The Magazine subscription

Another good start with the PSP, and the Orange Bowl trumps the Rose Bowl with including two games for the PSP, rather than just one. Nice to add a spice of variety, too, with the NBA making an appearance. Always good to support other sports!

And a duffel bag, too! I mean, the knapsack from the Rose Bowl could be the same thing, but it's all about presentation. "Knapsack" just implies some bum hitchhiking across the Atlantic Coast. Duffel bag? Athletic superstar in the making.

The commemorative department is nice, too. No real "bling" - a watch might've been nicer than the hat (but we don't know if the Rose Bowl watch is commemorative or just generic), but the plaque is a nice touch for decorating the trophy wall. Definite "A" in this department.

And hey, a better DVD too: Okay, so the kids didn't win in Friday Night Lights, and considering you're giving this to the #3 team in the BCS poll ("sorry your season came up short, guys, here's a movie about another team who did!") it might be a little crass, but still - more appropriate message, and a better movie all around.

(As a side note, a coworker of mine did point out - the team loses at the end of Friday Night Lights, and the team wins at the end of Longest Yard: are the BCS bowls trying to send the message "try your hardest, and you'll lose: if you really want to win, break the law"?)

Final Grade: A-. No insulting flip coin, and the movie's better. But you get the "minus" because ESPN sucks.

Sugar Bowl: West Virginia versus Georgia

• Men's Fossil watch/sunglasses set
• Samsung Mp3 player
• Customized Trek mountain bike
• Commemorative hat

Man, talk about the screwage! Which one's the big ticket item? The MP3 player? The mountain bike? What to tackle first?

Okay, we'll look at the MP3 player. Dude, it's an MP3 player. It's about the bling. How could you not go with the iPod? Just to check that I'm not wrong, here's what Google Image search says about "samsung bling" versus "ipod bling".

Yah, that's an easy one - I mean, it says right there: iPod Nano, Serious Bling. Samsung's only got some freakish preteen cellphone obsessed with sequins.

Now, onto the mountain bike. Thankfully both Georgia and West Virginia actually have mountains (trust me, if they gave this to Ohio State players, that'd be a total waste, unless by "mountain bike" they mean "10-foot rise bike") and hey, it's not like Georgia players have to take it very far. Hard-working Bulldogs could even bike home from the Sugar Bowl. But you have to feel bad for the West Virginia players for having to bring back a hundred mountain bikes with them. Imagine them seeing the Rose Bowl players with their backpack full of stuff happily getting on the plane to get home, as they struggle to carry around a giant bicycle. Plus, as several of my coworkers have noted, can you imagine some of the 300+ pound linemen on a mountain bike?

And commemorative stuff: a hat? That's it? It could be the biggest game of their careers, and all you give them is a piece of fabric that could get ripped up by their loser neighbor's stray dog? Man. Lame.

Plus nothing to carry the stuff home in? Jeez. Someone's going to forget their lame-ass Samsung MP3 player, and have to run back carrying their bike, and have their commemorative hat fly off and get trampled by a bus. Big minus on the style points here.

The Sugar Bowl tries valiantly to bring the bling with the Fossil watch and sunglasses set, but it's just too little, too late.

Final Grade: F. No decent big-ticket item, poor commemorative item, no luggage help, and only a halfhearted attempt at bling.

Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State versus Notre Dame

• Sony PSP
• Bulova men's watch
• Commemorative football
• Fiesta Bowl dart board and snack-filled duffel bag

Wow, 3/4 of the BCS bowls going with the safe PSP option - but what's this! No game to go with it? Great! So now, they get to carry around their PSP and fake playing it to get attention? Definitely lose style points with that one.

The men's watch is a nice bling piece (actually better than the Fossil watch, if product images off of Google are of any merit), but it's a little generic. Commemorative - or even just with the Fiesta Bowl logo - would've been nicer. Hopefully it's the gold plated one - stainless steel just doesn't get the ladies, folks.

And for the commemorative option: what? Only a football? That's it? Okay, it's better than if they just had a flip coin, and it's better than the hat, but man, that's all around mediocre. The dart board and duffel bag might be commemorative, but they could just be generic as well (with the Fiesta Bowl logo and that's it).

The snack-filled duffel bag scores high with the 300+ pound crowd, and the dart board is a nice addition, and will help replenish A.J. Hawk's newly-empty apartment. Nothing really standout, though. But decent all around, I guess.

Final Grade: C. Major style point loss for no game with the PSP, and only a commemorative football knocks them down a notch. All-around ordinary.

Other non-BCS notable bowl packages include the Alamo Bowl which earns a solid A+ for its major bling of an XBOX 360 ($500? eBay says $700+, baby!), plus a Fossil watch, a commemorative mini-helmet (okay, a little silly, but XBOX 360!) and a sling-bag. Solid marks! Wait, why's Michigan complaining again?

Also the Hawaii Bowl earns a big old F for Oakley sunglasses, a sports jacket and backpack, a disposable camera (disposable camera?! "here, sonny, here's five bucks, have fun.") and some beach stuff, and a few shirts. I'd give lower, but I can't. And it's not like "hey, they're a minor bowl" - the Poinsettia Bowl (the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl) gets a C for an iPod Mini, $15 gift certificate, watch, and commemorative sweatshirt, T-shirt, and hat.

Finally, kudos to the New Orleans Bowl, which gets a B for the "simple, yet classic" package of a championship ring and watch. Yah, not as flashy as a PSP or an Xbox 360, and no luggage help, but you'll definitely get the ladies with the ring bling - much more so than with an Aloha shirt and a disposable camera, at least.

Edit: Holy crap, I missed the "Mother Of All WTFs" package: the Peach Bowl, which starts out decent with a commemorative windshirt, commemorative football and watch, and Xbox and Xbox game pack (not a 360, though) - but then throws it all in the toilet by including Wild at Heart, which is subtitled "Discovering the Secret of a Man's Soul". From the review: "He challenges Christian men to return to authentic masculinity without resorting to a "macho man" mentality." What?! These are football players! I think the 'macho man' mentality is exactly what they're after!

Media, and deserving Poz?

2005-12-12T11:08:00.000-08:00

So I think just about every single reporter who went to that conference wrote some long complaining thing about JoePa not making the players available.

Centre Daily even put up a poll asking if people thought he should've made the players available. Answer? Yah, a resounding "no". Cool. I feel better now.

And Keith from Buckeye Commentary and myself were having a discussion regarding whether or not Poz deserved the Butkus. Well, kindof a discussion. I've seen all of the Penn State and Ohio State games this year, but I'm not a good enough judge of skill to say whether Poz or Hawk did a better job as a linebacker. There have been several scouts that have said that Poz might be a better pure linebacker, so basically I just give the benefit of the doubt and say, okay, I can understand that. And my own opinions as to what a linebacker should be kinda tell me that I think Poz did a better job as well, but that's just my opinion.

But I will say that I do think that A.J. Hawk probably deserved the Bednarik over Poz. Remember, the Bednarik goes to best defensive player, and I think if you took Hawk out of the OSU defense, they are seriously, seriously weakened. If you take Poz out of the PSU defense, I think the defense is weakened, sure, but not nearly as much - you've still got just as strong a defensive line, and just as strong a secondary.

Heck, I'm not convinced that I would give Poz the title of "best defensive player" on Penn State's own defense. Hali had a monster year, and Zemaitis may not have had a ton of interceptions, but how much of that was due to the fact that no one ever threw to him? But Hawk, in my mind, took the OSU defense from "good" to "great". Now, how can that make him not the best linebacker? Well, that's a subject for discussion, as you can see above. :)

Media vs. Paterno - fight!

2005-12-07T18:44:00.000-08:00

What the heck is the media's problem with Paterno recently? In JoePa's latest press conference, after he cancelled the students meeting with the press, the media were all over him during the conference, badgering him about the fact that he's not willing to make the students available.

Thing is, the game isn't for another month. And finals week is next week. What, exactly, would the students say this week? "Uh, we're looking forward to playing Florida State... just like we will be in two weeks, after I've finished taking my final, can I go now?"

JoePa's definitely got a point - ESDBS's recent post on why ESPN sucks points out that sports media kinda has grown just a little insane. And while some of these athletes will be professional athletes, and so this will just be part of the job, a lot of them won't. I really pride Paterno for trying to drive this home, and the media just badgered him, arguing "well, how can the kids get national exposure if you won't make them available to the public?" Yah, last time I checked, I think I've seen Robinson more than I've seen several of my friends, so I think they might be available. Could be wrong.

FightOnState.com has the interview if you want to listen to it. The end of part 2 and part 3 is where they really get argumentative. Also in the beginning when they complain about the students being unavailable. The article text is, shall we say, a little unfair to the actual contents.

What's funny is that none of the media really push the fact that Paterno's focus on ensuring the kids graduating works. The graduation rate for football players in 2002 was 88 percent. The national average is 52 percent.

PSU-USC matchup?

2005-12-07T08:12:00.000-08:00

No, not that USC - University of South Carolina. I previously posted about Penn State's open date next year since La. Tech backed out. Well, it turns out that UCF did the same thing to University of South Carolina next year, on the same day! So they're trying to find an opponent, we're trying to find an opponent, and we really shouldn't be thinking about a Div. IAA opponent.

Granted, this makes next year's out of conference schedule ridiculously hard, giving us Akron (7-5) Notre Dame (9-2), and South Carolina (7-4) next year. Compare that to Cincinnati (3-7), Central Michigan (6-5), and USF (5-5). In less biased numbers (from Colley's rankings), we're going from teams with a corrected average winning percentage of 0.49 (i.e. just a little worse than average) to 0.65 (i.e. way above average). If Penn State had had that schedule this year, they would've had the second hardest schedule in college football - harder than Ohio State's, and only second to Michigan (only that bad because they played us and Ohio State). If we had played that schedule this year, it would've been the hardest out-of-conference schedule in the Big Ten. Yes, harder than Ohio State's.

So, from a football standpoint, it's a big risk. But I think it's a risk worth taking. If nothing else, a 3-0 start, with that schedule, would make Penn State look very attractive in the polls.

Update:

Well, just a short time after I posted this, the story came out that Penn State is playing Youngstown State next year. So much for that hope.

The "what if" game, USC version

2005-12-05T14:26:00.000-08:00

Wow. That's mainly what I have to say regarding USC. Granted, USC's defense seems to take games off quite often, but they matched up very well regarding UCLA, apparently - UCLA's offensive line couldn't create any holes, and the few times UCLA tested USC's edge, there didn't seem to be much there, either.

That being said, though, UCLA mainly pushed up the middle, and tested the secondary, but USC maintained coverage pretty well. It's tough to tell how Penn State would do against USC's defense - UCLA and Penn State's offensive styles are pretty much directly opposite. But USC didn't have the obvious Achilles' heel that Texas did last week. Notre Dame was able to put up points versus USC by mid-to-deep passes, which Penn State could also do as well, but our bread-and-butter is rushing, and outside rushing at that.

It's a bit easier to guess how USC's offense would do against Penn State's defense. It's simple enough to say that Reggie Bush wouldn't run for 260 yards versus Penn State. Penn State simply doesn't give up extremely long runs like that, and the linebackers are usually able to contain runs that break through the defensive line to less than 10 yards. As for Leinart, that's a bit tougher to say. He looked positively awful in the UCLA game, and the Penn State secondary would've made him seriously pay for a few of those overthrows. But in general most of them were overthrown out of bounds, and so they weren't really that dangerous.

I think a Penn State-USC matchup would be a tough battle for Penn State. So long as we're playing the "what if" game, if Derrick Williams were back, I think Penn State might be able to take it. It would depend on how Robinson was passing.

Without Williams, though, the field compresses a bit, and I don't think Penn State would pull it out.

Note here that I'm not implying that Texas will lose. I actually think this is one of those cases where each of the three teams would beat the other and make a circle of death. I think Texas has a good shot at beating USC, as Texas's defensive strengths (fast, aggressive) play right into USC's style. Well, we'll see in a few weeks, won't we?

In the meantime, I'll follow the Nittany Blog's advice and stop complaining about the FSU matchup. He is right - a marquee matchup in a BCS bowl is more than any of us could've asked for a few months ago. And hey, getting to put the beatdown on Bowden and ensure that Paterno gains another game on him is all for the better.

PSU-FSU Orange Bowl?

2005-12-03T21:17:00.000-08:00

Well, thanks, Virginia Tech, as it looks like it'll probably be a Penn State/Florida State Orange Bowl. Which means that if Ohio State makes the BCS, they actually get a better opponent than the Nittany Lions.

Va. Tech is an odd team. I don't think I've ever seen a more poorly coached and playcalled game. I think Virginia Tech had at least 4 fumbles, of which they only lost 1 - but if you watched the ball carrier, on every one - with at least three different ball carriers - the person was carrying the ball with one arm, away from his body. In comes the defender, helmet pops the ball out, and poof. That's just poor discipline.

And the constant whining at the officials after every play? That was just childish. You've got to keep kids' heads in the game.

More thoughts regarding Florida State later, but I've got a feeling a PSU-FSU Orange Bowl will be a rout. Florida State did not look that good. For some reason, Va. Tech virtually never ran the ball, even though they were successful with it from time to time. Especially on the edge, Florida State's defense looks a little slow. Virginia Tech tried to attack it with short hitches and WR screens, but Vick's inaccuracy caused a large number of those to be incomplete. Option pitches should do fine.

For some reason as well, Vick continued to try to pass whenever he was forced to scramble. Even when they were only down by a touchdown! In most of those cases, he gave up 5 or 6 yards for a pass that wasn't completed anyway. Most of his deeper passes were poor decisions or underthrows, including that interception.

Michael Robinson isn't exactly the most accurate quarterback, but his decision-making has become top-notch, and FSU won't get those gimmes against Penn State. Add in the fact that FSU's offensive line seemed porous whenever Virginia Tech rushed four (which they rarely did, which I completely don't understand), and this smells like a rout to me.

"What if" game, USC edition coming tomorrow. Note that you'll find out that I'm not a shameless homer in that one. Congrats to USC and Texas for getting to the Rose Bowl. And I'd like to thank LSU and Virginia Tech for making Penn State a consensus #3 by tomorrow, and if either USC or Texas stinks it up in the Rose Bowl, helping make Penn State a consensus #2.

Man, for a playoff. Dangit.

The "what if" game, BCS version

2005-12-02T11:15:00.000-08:00

Let's inject a bit of reality into Penn State's Rose Bowl hopes.

Here are the current BCS top 4 standings, with the Harris/Coaches/Computer percentages.

USC: 0.986 (0.995/0.994/0.970)

Texas: 0.974 (0.965/0.966/0.990)

Penn State: 0.899 (0.894/0.883/0.920)

LSU: 0.849 (0.885/0.901/0.760)

What'll happen if USC loses this weekend? Well, thankfully, the Colley Rankings allow us to test just that. USC losing and Texas winning moves Penn State into second place in the computer rankings. The "0.990, 0.970, 0.920" rankings above for Texas/USC/UCLA are saying that Texas is almost univerally first, USC second, Penn State third (though not quite: that would be 1.000, 0.960, 0.920). The computer rankings aren't really that different - it's safe to say that USC losing drops them from 2 to 3. Penn State is a completely universal #3, so it's safe to say they'll be a completely universal #2.

USC's human poll ranking will definitely go down. How far do they have to go down for Penn State to leapfrog them? Going down to #2 will give them a BCS ranking of 0.950, and Penn State a ranking of 0.915. Penn State's current spot in the Harris/Coaches' poll is really a "3.5" - 3 is 0.920, and 4 is 0.880. So right now, voters are split as to who to put at #3. Half put LSU, half put Penn State. If it were only PSU/USC as options for 2/3, PSU would need at least one quarter of the voters to put Penn State #2. It's more complicated with LSU, obviously, but unless USC gets a significant number of votes for #4, that result stays the same - a quarter of the voters.

Now, what happens if Texas loses this week? USC then claims the top computer spot, and Texas drops to #3. This is the same situation as above - but now it's easier because Texas started off at #2, and its hard to imagine voters not wavering at all after a loss to Colorado, and given that half the voters in Harris/Coaches polls already have Penn State at #3, you'd only need half of that half to waver after a loss to Colorado.

And if Texas and USC both lose? That's an easy one. That puts Penn State at the top of most computer rankings, at which point Penn State would only need about an eighth of the voters placing them #2 for them to be a guaranteed lock.

The "what if" game, Texas version

2005-11-27T19:55:00.000-08:00

Ah, the twisted sense of humor that fate has. If it wasn't for one poor decision by a coach, a Big Ten team could be in the Rose Bowl facing USC.

Wait, you say - poor decision? What bad decision did Paterno make? Maybe that punt to Breaston in the Michigan game?

Oh, no, that's not the decision I'm talking about. I'm talking about Tressel's decision not to play Troy Smith versus Texas. Anyone who saw the Texas A&M game can see that Texas has a weakness - you can't run an option over thirty times in a game, have it constantly work, and have that not be a weakness.

Granted, the team in the Rose Bowl would be OSU, but still. After last weekend, that decision has to rank as the stupidest decision of the year by a coach.

Which leads me to the "what if" game. What if USC loses to UCLA, and Penn State somehow ends up playing Texas in the Rose Bowl? Was the Texas A&M game random? That you'd never convince me of - the linebackers and secondary of Texas were constantly overpursuing, and the Aggies freshman QB had no problem deciding when to pitch, and when to run. Even after halftime, when the game was in doubt, Texas still didn't adjust.

So what does this all mean? It means that I'm strongly considering moving Texas down to #3 on my own Top 25 (which I will probably post tomorrow), making me a complete shameless homer, I know. But if Penn State played Texas on a neutral field, I think Penn State would win. Texas's defense showed too many holes, too many fatal flaws - and ones that PSU's offense are precisely designed to exploit. OSU contained Texas's "OMG 50 PPG!!" offense to only the mid-twenties, so they're not unstoppable. Had it been Penn State's defense in the Texas A&M game, Texas would've lost. Easily. Penn State versus Texas? PSU 28, Texas 25.

USC version coming after the USC/UCLA game.

Quick thoughts

2005-11-20T09:54:00.000-08:00

Just a quick thought on the game - remember, I still have to watch it, thanks to the worst travel schedule possible.

It's amazing how good Penn State's defense is. Really - simply amazing. Versus Minnesota and Ohio State, Paul Posluszny was a beast. At one point, Posluszny had as many tackles as all of the OSU linebackers combined. He was Big Ten defensive player of the week 3 weeks in a row. College football talking heads were probably practicing saying "Posluszny" thinking they'd be talking about him every week.

Then the Wisconsin game comes around, and it's not Poz who puts up the big game, but Tamba Hali, who basically beat Wisconsin all by himself. So now people start talking about Penn State's great defensive line, lead by Hali, and their great linebackers, lead by Poz.

Now the Michigan State game comes around, and it's not Poz or Hali, but Zemaitis who absolutely trashes the Spartans, shutting down two drives after the Spartans marched down the field, and then handing the offense an easy score as well.

So, let's review - you've got a great defensive line led by Hali, great linebackers led by Poz, and a great secondary led by Zemaitis.

Of course, I'm not telling you anything any Penn State fan doesn't know. But in some sense it was fitting - for each of Penn State's three biggest wins of the year, a different unit on the defense had to step up, and they did.

And incidentally, kudos to Ohio State for beating Michigan. Two Big Ten teams in the BCS? Are you kidding me? Look at the schedules these two teams have had to face. I don't even think if USC or Texas had played Penn State or Ohio State's schedule that they would've ended up unbeaten.

And I think we all know what my Wednesday Weekend Wishlist will include now. With Miami losing, that makes Penn State a lock to grab the #3 BCS ranking, which means that every Penn State fan should be screaming his brains out rooting for Texas A&M and UCLA. Hey, there's a chance. Apparently I've appeased the football gods, because my Fresno State beating USC didn't seem so crazy in the 4th quarter, now did it?

Paterno: Mandel's Sportsman of the Year

2005-11-18T18:22:00.000-08:00

Stewart Mandel (who's lauded the Lions all year) picked Joe Paterno for Sportsman of the Year for SI, and man, I'm thrilled.

It's a great read, and a great honor for a terrific year. I have to say, I came very close to cutting my trip short just to make sure that I don't miss Penn State's last game this year (unfortunately that was basically impossible). I never doubted Paterno would turn it around. Never.

Why? Because when has Paterno ever been selfish in his life? I mean, really? He has a normal-sized house just outside of campus. He donated a huge amount of money to Penn State. And he's turned down offer after offer to leave Penn State for more money. And people were saying that Paterno was just trying to win one more championship for himself before he retires?

Please. If he says "no, I can still coach", I'll believe him. And he did. And he can. He's not still coaching just to prove he can do it. He's still coaching because he can.

In some sense, this whole season makes The Lion in Autumn seem all the more amazing. It's too bad that the author didn't know the team was just one year away from vindicating all of Paterno's statements about them.

Good luck, JoePa. If I had a vote, I'd vote for you all the way. Team sports are all about the team - and I can't think of anyone who's exemplified that more than Paterno. Be loyal to your players, and they'll be loyal to you. Be loyal to your school, and it'll be loyal to you. Sportsman of the Year? You bet.

Wednesday Thursday Weekend Wishlist

2005-11-17T12:13:00.000-08:00

Just as a reminder - sorry for no updates, as I'm out of the country on business. Yes. That means I miss the game on Saturday. Yes. I'm upset. But anyway, I've still got a list of things I'd like to see happen this weekend...

Ohio State over Michigan - Why should I care about this? Since Wisconsin lost, if Michigan wins, and Penn State loses, they go to the BCS. I guess there's an outside shot that if Penn State loses they might get an at large bid, so I think this helps. I think it's likely, too. Michigan's been playing stellar for the past few weeks, but Henne's been flaky all year, and I think Henne's not going to have short passes available thanks to OSU's linebacking corps - which only makes his job harder. He played nearly perfect in the PSU game. Can he do it twice? I hope not.

Fresno State over USC - Ha, this is a pipe dream, right? I'm not so sure. They have beaten absolutely no one, but I think USC is more fragile than people think. If you've got a team with a strong defense, a 10-point lead might be better than a 20-point lead by a team with a weak defense, which is why I don't put a heck of a lot of weight to USC's overpowering wins. If Fresno State can slow USC down, they might ... okay, not really. But it's a nice thought, right?

Unfortunately, most of Penn State's Rose Bowl faint hopes faded after last week. Alabama was LSU's hardest remaining opponent, and with LSU pushing PSU down in both the polls for some weird reason, that doesn't exactly leave Penn State with a shot at pulling ahead of Miami due to its high computer ranking.

I'm not going to even mention a certain game in East Lansing here. Given the fact that all of my weekend wishlists were denied last week, I think I'll avoid tempting fate.

Penn State vs...

2005-11-11T16:50:00.000-08:00

Appalachian State? Southeast Missouri State? Mississippi Valley State? After Louisiana Tech cancelled their 2006 game due to a scheduling conflict, Penn State's probably going to have to schedule a Division IAA team, according to Paterno.

I tend to downgrade teams who play Division IAA teams, because I think it's, well, kinda bad sportsmanship. I also think that those games heftily screw up computer rankings (like Sagarin's ratings). But now I'm wondering, am I being too harsh? Obviously Penn State doesn't really have a choice here - everyone else is scheduled, and so there's not much they could do. Is this why other teams play Division IAA teams, I wonder?

Oh well. Paterno at least will be able to show class again by not running up the score against an inferior opponent, hopefully.

Just for fun, PAC-10 beatpaths

2005-11-10T17:26:00.000-08:00

Just for fun, I wanted to see what the Big Ten beatpath graph looked like compared to another conference, so I chose the Pacific-10, just for fun. I figured it'd be especially fun given that UCLA just jumped off a bridge.

So here's the Pac-10 beatpath graph as of now:
Pac-10 Beatpaths

And the loops (which boiled down to STAN->ASU->ORST):
Pac-10 Loops

Hmm. Interesting. The Pac-10 punching bags are obviously Washington and Washington State, but only really USC and Oregon have managed to clearly establish a pecking order. If I was to try to link up the Pac-10 and Big 10 graphs, it'd be pretty easy, as there are only 3 games connecting the two. Oh, what the heck, I'll clutter things up here for the heck of it.

Big Ten-Pac-10 Graph

Gack! Northwestern, how could you lose to ASU! Oh, the humanity!

Heh. Now I really want to see all of college football. Not that it would mean anything, mind you, just because it would look cool.

I guess I have to put this disclaimer here just to be safe: no, I am not trying to say Penn State is at a level of Arizona State and UCLA. Just wanted to avoid the drama right now.

Wednesday's Weekend Wishlist

2005-11-09T07:55:00.000-08:00

Here's what I'm hoping to see from college football this weekend. Well, not literally see, as I'll be in another country. So I guess "here's what I'm hoping to read about on Sunday" in a sick, demented, cold, logical "we want Penn State in the Rose Bowl" way.

Wisconsin over Iowa: With Penn State's win over Wisconsin, Penn State owns all tiebreakers over them. However, in a three way tie for first with PSU-WIS-MICH, Wisconsin's presence makes Michigan drop out (due to nonconference record) and then Penn State wins the head-to-head. Plus Barry Alvarez is a nice guy, and it'd be nice for Wisconsin to make a decent bowl.

Northwestern over Ohio State: Need OSU to drop behind us in order to make the Michigan State game irrelavent. Wouldn't that be a nice present.

Michigan State over Minnesota: You want Michigan State fighting for bowl eligibility at home versus Penn State fighting for the Big Ten championship? Yah. Me neither.

Cal over USC: Yah, this one's easy.

Alabama over LSU: But this one's not. You'd think that a Penn State fan should be rooting for LSU to take down another unbeaten, but not this one. LSU in most polls is bizarrely ranked above Penn State, even though their wins/losses really don't support that ranking. But the polls always have "inertia" for teams' placement - if LSU wins, they're not going to go down. They're going to go up. Even though with a win, they still don't really deserve a #3 spot. Root for Alabama, then root for Auburn in the next week. Otherwise there's no way LSU doesn't stay above PSU.

I'm not stupid enough to think that Kansas might beat Texas.

On the "nice guy" side, I'd be happy if Ohio State did win out, assuming we beat Michigan State. I think from this year's Big Ten, we deserve two teams in the BCS, absolutely. Ohio State is certainly more deserving of a BCS at-large bid than a team like Oregon, that's for sure.

The fireworks continue!

2005-11-08T16:46:00.000-08:00

I don't want this to turn into another rant - already been enough of those - but I just wanted to say hello to 50 Yard Lion again, who responded to my rant. First, no, I didn't create the blog just for you. I actually mainly created it because I was so impressed with MGoBlog - take a look at it, especially the Upon Further Reviews! We need something like that for Penn State football! - and also because I needed somewhere to put observations regarding Penn State, the Big Ten, and the NFL. Note that I'm a physics and astronomy graduate, so I've got a pretty decent background in math, so you'll probably come across some decently technical stuff. Like the beatpaths, and I'm hoping to develop a much more detailed Division IA computer ranking system sometime next year. Maybe over the holidays.

Second, I just want to clarify one thing. I have no problem with believing that officials made a bad call. I was perfectly in agreement with JoePa in the 2002 season regarding the necessity of instant replay, and I believe that Penn State almost definitely lost one game due to a bad call, if not more. But what I do have a problem with is the conspiracy theory stuff.

It's one thing to say "we were cheated!" It's quite another thing to say "you cheated us!" Okay, really, that's the last from me on this.

Big Ten Beatpath Rankings Week 8

2005-11-08T11:43:00.000-08:00

I came across an interesting idea for ranking teams based on "unambiguous beatpaths" here. The idea is pretty simple - you have an "unambiguous beatwin" over another team if there's a chain of wins to that team, and no team on that chain has beaten you.

So, for instance, Penn State has beaten Ohio State who has beaten Iowa who has beaten Purdue who has beaten Michigan State who has beaten Indiana who has beaten Illinois. That's the longest current beatpath in the Big Ten (though not the only one of that length).

These rankings aren't subjective. They're automatic, just based purely on wins and losses, with no ambiguity. Here's the beatpath rankings for the Big Ten as of Week 8 (of the Big Ten season).

Beatpath Rankings for Week 8

Wow. What's interesting is it falls out exactly as you'd expect, although maybe some people wouldn't put Purdue that high. But hey, they beat Michigan State, and Michigan State has beaten - well, no one in the Big Ten. But look at it: it puts Penn State at the top, and Wisconsin/Northwestern/Ohio State/Michigan all at about the same level.

The interesting thing about beatpaths is how to handle beatpath loops. Like, for instance, the fact that Penn State has beaten Wisconsin, who beat Michigan, who beat Penn State. In any ranking where you say "I won't put someone over someone else they've beaten" this is a problem. In the methodology of beatpaths.com, you simply delete all of those games.

Curiously, in the Big Ten, there's only one beatloop graph, all involving Michigan's win over Penn State, and Michigan's win over Northwestern. Those snarky Wolverines! Here's the loop graph.

Big Ten beatloops

If you look, you can tell that this graph actually has three smaller loops - Michigan->NW->Wisconsin, Michigan->Penn State->Minnesota, and Michigan->Penn State->Wisconsin. The beatpath methodology says we delete the smallest loops first, so all of those games go poof. From this graph, this leaves us with one beatpath: PSU->NW, so that's what this graph entirely resolves to.

One interesting problem with these rankings is that Michigan is essentially immune to moving down on the graph, thanks to its win over Penn State. Even if OSU beats Michigan, they can't move down, as that would put them under Penn State, whom they beat. This type of problem usually resolves itself in the NFL due to teams playing each other multiple times. But still, it's interesting.

Thanks to tunesmith of beatpaths.com for this idea!

Update: Well, I've now computed power rankings based on a similar methodology to that on Beatpaths.com, although in my case, instead of the number of unique teams in beatloops, I use the number of teams in independent beatloops only (This avoids penalizing Penn State for Michigan being wacko). Rankings go from 1.0 to -1.0.

1: Penn State 0.723
2: Ohio State 0.714
3: Wisconsin 0.555
4: Michigan 0.500
5: Northwestern 0.444
6: Minnesota 0.111
7: Iowa 0.000
8: Purdue -0.400
9: Michigan State -0.600
10: Indiana -0.800
11: Illinois -1.000

Wisconsin game notes

2005-11-08T07:17:00.000-08:00

Gee, you think I'm making up for not having a blog before? Really? Hadn't noticed.

Vinny from FO commented in the Seventh Day Adventure thread that he was surprised to see Penn State's D-line be that dominant. Vinny's a Michigan fan, so I can understand - I don't know what happened during the Michigan game. The rest of the year, though, they've looked dominant, although not this dominant.

It wasn't surprising to see Hali get so much mention through the day, as Calhoun isn't the same kind of runner that Maroney is. That being said, it's good to know that this year, just... don't bother running against Penn State. Can't run up the middle, Posluszny will stop you. Can't run to the sides, Hali and Rice will stop you. There's just too much speed and power on this defense. Incidentally, has anyone noticed that Penn State hasn't given up a run longer than 24 yards all year?

That's right - no one has broken a long run on the Penn State defense. Not Maroney, not Russell, not Calhoun, not Mike Hart. No one.

And Zemaitis continues to shine, with an absolutely beautiful baiting of Stocco to throw the interception in the end zone. Zemaitis literally hid behind another Wisconsin receiver/Penn State defender until Stocco started his throwing motion, at which point he bolted towards the open tight end, and snatched the ball out of the air with a beautiful catch.

I felt bad for Robinson's second interception. Bad luck on tipped balls this year. The first one was all his fault, misreading the coverage. Overall he looks like he's regressed a bit since the Michigan game, which was making me say "Who are you, and what have you done with Michael Robinson" but I think he'll be fine for the rest of the year.

So, Penn State's clearly in the driver's seat for the Big Ten. Still need to win at MSU to cleanly win it, though. Unfortunately for me, I'm traveling that weekend, so I'll have to follow it via crappy web play-by-play, and see the game later. What a year to be travelling at the end of the college football season.

Week 11 Top 25

2005-11-07T22:45:00.000-08:00

It's the First Ever, Totally Original, Bleed Blue 'n White Top 25!

Texas. Slightly better schedule than USC, but only temporarily.

USC. Just be patient. Beat the crap out of Cal/Fresno St./UCLA and you'll be #1, okay?

Alabama. Sorry, cardinal rule - all unbeatens at the top. I'd rank 'em 1a, 1b, 1c if I could.

Penn State. Shameless homerism? Not this year! Woo!

Miami (FL). Sorry, guys, I like consistent wins against very good teams more than one win against a great team.

Virginia Tech. Miami game was supposed to be the one where you leapfrogged Texas in the computer rankings. Wrong way, guys.

Ohio State. Any other year, and you'd be the best team in the Big Ten. Hawk, Carpenter, Schlegel, sorry, time to cut your hair.

Georgia. Higher than others because I kinda forgive that loss without a QB.

Notre Dame. OK, so I guess my "what if Notre Dame loses to Tennessee" scenario was a joke...

Florida. "Hey, you've got them under a team they beat!" Yah. Did you miss the "forgive QB-less loss" comment?

LSU. "Hey, you've got them under a team they beat!" Yes, because they just played a non-Division IA opponent, and had their closest game ever against one.

Oregon. watches UCLA zoom past them on their fall from grace. Don't taunt, Ducks. Not like it couldn't happen to you.

Texas Tech. watches Oregon's reaction - shudders in fear. Just wait.

West Virginia. Man, I'd like to see South Florida beat these guys and make the Big East a total mess.

UCLA. Whew! After that pounding, it's great UCLA doesn't have any other powerhouse teams on its schedule! Its ranking is safe!

TCU. Why did you have to lose to SMU? You could've been the worst BBNW #4 ever!

Wisconsin. There's a reason they had to beat Minnesota on fluke luck. This is probably too high.

Michigan. Best three loss team. except Rutgers, if you're on acid.

Colorado. Just... beat the tar out of Nebraska so we can pretend you beat someone real, OK?

Florida State. Beat my #5 team, and only a #20 ranking? Next time don't lose to NC State!

Georgia Tech. NC State, the killer of the 20s.

Auburn. But not me! Ahhahahahahhahaha!

Northwestern. The game is never over versus Northwestern. Unless you're Michigan, that is.

Fresno State. Best win is over Toledo. Yeah. Okay.

Minnesota.

Closest team out: UTEP. Sorry, guys, but with that weak of a schedule, you can't lose to Memphis.

For the record, even though I'm not in the BlogPoll, I watched PSU/Wisconsin, Iowa/Northwestern, and portions of Miami/VT. Oh, and Toledo/Ohio. Yes, really, Toledo/Ohio. Fresno State's lucky I put them at 24.

Stop the insanity!

2005-11-07T22:13:00.000-08:00

First rant! Ah, I'm so proud of myself for holding off so long. Aren't you?

50 Yard Lion, just... stop. Please. You're embarassing all of us. Yes, I know that some Penn State fans believe the officials hate us. Yes, I'm sure some Penn State fans think Michigan's running a vast global conspiracy designed to rid the world of fluoridated water.

"Mr. President, we cannot allow a two-second gap!"

But really, you've gone too far. You're now accusing Brian, a fellow blogger from MGoBlog who's worked his ass off to create a great poll setup for all college football fans, of biasing the poll against Penn State? Because there are 5 Michigan voters, and only two Penn State voters?

Give me a break! This is just stupid conspiracy theory crap. So they have Penn State lower than you do. Big deal. Straight Bangin' has Michigan - his own team! - ranked way below their overall poll position - not at all.

Brian, in fact, had Penn State ranked seriously higher than the rest of the poll at large. Why? Because, as he said, he reviewed everyone's wins, and Penn State's is better than the others. Man, Brian. Stop the Lion-hating, man. I mean, really.

So, seriously, I ask again - please, 50 Yard Lion, please stop. I like reading you. Really I do. The "they're tribbles with teeth!" bit was great. But until you stop the really childish "THEM" stuff, I'm just going to have to ignore you.

Welcome

2005-11-07T21:45:00.000-08:00

Well, welcome to Bleed Blue 'n White, a Penn State football blog, with a bit of sprinklings of the NFL just for flavor.

I'm sure you're saying - why bother creating yet another Penn State blog? There are already a bunch - the Nittany Blog, and CentreDaily's Monday Morning QB just to name two.

Well, it's simple - what I haven't found is a rabid, football-obsessed fanatic fan site that's fair. By fair, what I mean is placing laurels where they belong, and criticism where it belongs, and not pointlessly heaping it on officials, or some secret cabal of blue-and-yellow shapechanging vampires who have subverted the Big Ten to their whims.

You want to talk about Penn State football? Great. So do I. You want to try to find more information about George Bush and Halliburton's connection to Lloyd Carr that helped him get the two seconds put back on the clock in the 2005 game? Go somewhere else.

We got it? On the same page? Great! Welcome to Bleed Blue 'n White.